数字低碳与低碳数字：数字技术的“环境帐”能否平衡？

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            ...................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................... ............................................................................................... ............................................................................................. .................................................................................... ................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ............................................................................................................. ....................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ......................................................................................... ..................................................................................................... ..................................................................................................... ...................................................................................................................................... 1 WMO -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1850 2024.12 ERA5 1940 2024.12 GISTEMP 1880 2024.12 HadCRUT5 1850 2024.12 JRA-3Q 1947 2024.12 NOAA v6 1850 2024.12 2 WWA 3 4 WMO AVISO/CNES WMO WGMS -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 5 6 WWF WWF 7 EDGAR Net Zero Tracker , 29.90% 27 , 8.20% , 6.70% , 4.80% , 3.10% , 1.80% , 1.60% , 1.60% , 1.60% , 1.30% , 1.20% , 1.10% , 1.10% , 1.00% 123 , 9.00% , 13.70% , 9.50% , 3.50% 1 2030 2050 959 2019-20 2.5 3.2 1.74 2023 4.5-5.7 125 102 2019-20 3200-5400 - 142 2019-20 7310 65 2021-22 1300 - 8 SIPRI 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.60% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 9 10 2 11 2022 12 OECD 13 14 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 0 200 400 600 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 AI AI TWh 0% 5% 10% 15% 15 IEA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 16 OECD 1 1 REGlobal. “Why Artificial Intelligence Is a Game-Changer for Renewable Energy.” REGlobal, 29 Nov. 2020, https://reglobal.org/why- artificial-intelligence-is-a-game-changer-for-renewable-energy/. 17 IEA 𝐻2 18 IEA 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 CCUS DRI DRI CCUS H2-DRI 19 20 IEA 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2012/4/1 2014/12/27 2017/9/22 2020/6/18 2023/3/15 2025/12/9 NVIDIA GB200 NVL2 Google TPU v7 Ironwood NVIDIA B200 NVIDIA H100 NVL NVIDIA B100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 62 96 120 34 62 82 0 50 100 150 2010 2022 2030 30 31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 32 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 0 5 10 15 20 kg kg ..................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................. ............................................................................................ ...................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ............................................................................................................................................ ................................................... ........................................................................ ......................................................................... ............................................................................................................ ...................................................................................................................... .......................................................................................... .................................................................................. ................................................................................................ .................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................... .................................................. ................................................. ......................................................................................... ............................................................................................................. ............................................................................................. ............................................................................................. ...................................................................................... ..................................................................................... ................................................................ ......................................................................................................... ................................................................................... .................................................................. ................................................................... ...................................................................................... ...................................................................................................