全球能源转型展望2025—全球和区域预测至2060-挪威船级社DNV

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HARD SECTORS ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK 2025 A global and regional forecast to 2060 FOREWORD Faced with these developments, a casual observer might conclude that the energy transition is stalled or in reverse. That is most definitely not the case. The energy transition is rolling on. DNV’s annual Energy Transition Outlook has, consistently, forecast a shift from today’s 80/20 fossil/non-fossil primary energy mix to a 50/50 mix by 2050. That is still our prediction this year, although some aspects of the transition are supercharged and progressing rapidly, while other aspects of the transition have hit turbulence and are delayed. This leads to a marginally slower transition than our forecast last year. Hydrogen and its derivatives, floating offshore wind, and novel nuclear solutions comprise the expensive side of decarbonization, with uptake driven by policy rather than market forces. These technologies all play a more muted role in this year’s forecast, only really scaling in the 2040s. In contrast, cheap renewable electrons, stored when necessary in ever-cheaper batteries, are already an unstoppable force. We forecast that solar (both with and without storage) and wind will be 32% of the global power mix by 2030. We expect a resurgence in offshore wind by 2030, such that variable renewables will provide more than 50% of all electricity by 2040. By then, electricity will have grown 55% from today’s levels. What is stopping runaway developments in electrification is a lagging grid buildout. We estimate that in Europe, absent the present ‘gridlock’, solar capacity could be 16% higher by 2035, and wind capacity 8% higher. Soaring power demand from AI data centres is placing additional strain on already congested grids, particularly in North America. Our analysis finds that AI’s energy demand growth is likely to become more linear over time (outpaced, for instance, by EV charging demand) even as the cognitive services of AI expand exponentially. That is due to many efficiency effects working together, a theme we explore in some depth in this year’s forecast. In our view, the heightened focus on energy security by policymakers worldwide slightly favours non-fossil over fossil sources in the long run. That includes a resurgence of investment in nuclear power, which we predict will grow 150% from today’s levels by 2060. On the fossil side of the mix, policy reversals in the US will see its emission reductions set back around 5 years. The US accounts for one seventh of global primary energy use and thus exerts some influence on the overall picture. However, massive scale decarbonization of the Chinese economy continues, coupled with low-cost electro-technology exports from China to other regions. This year, our forecast runs to 2060, not 2050. That is mainly because the transition is by no means complete in 2050 and there is a very important dynamic unfolding in the decade thereafter as the world trends further towards a decarbonized energy mix. That trend is unstoppable but too slow, setting up grave risks for future generations. Net-zero emissions in our forecast is only achieved towards the end of this century, and the accumulation of emissions until then takes us beyond 2°C of warming by 2100. Science has shown beyond any doubt that humanity will then be experiencing, to its great cost, how critical each tenth of a degree of global warming is to our planet and society. Ten years have passed since representatives from 196 nations signed the Paris Agreement. Since then, only six countries have reduced their emissions in line with their pledges, while the US has exited the Agreement, again. It is now widely acknowledged that the world will not achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This means warming will exceed 1.5°C and then increase relentlessly until we reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero. Remi Eriksen Group President and CEO DNV It is now widely acknowledged that the world will not achieve net zero emissions by 2050, which means warming will exceed 1.5°C. 2 DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2025 FINANCE FOSSIL FUELS HARD SECTORS POLICY EMISSIONS REGIONS ETO MODEL FORECAST ELECTRIFICATION DEVELOPMENTS HIGHLIGHTS Policy reversals in the US will have only a marginal impact on the global energy transition Energy security actions globally produce a net result of lower emissions over time EV and solar set new milestones as electricity production grows and greens with a progressively higher non-fossil share AI’s energy use may seem alarming, but at only 3% of global electricity by 2040, is projected to stay below booming sectors like EV charging and space cooling Emissions are not even halving by 2050, and urgent action is required to reach the ‘well below 2°C’ target 1. Policy reversals in the US will have only a marginal impact on the global energy transition — This year, we project an energy transition that is marginally slower than the transition we forecast last year, both in terms of emissions and fossil's share of primary energy. — In the US, fossil fuel promotion and the reversal of clean energy support policies markedly slow that nation’s transition. Emission reductions are delayed by about five years (Highlight 1) and through to 2050 annual CO2 emissions are reset 500 to 1000 Mt higher than we predicted one year ago. — China continues to set renewables buildout records with 390 GW of solar PV (56% share of new global capacity) and 86 GW of wind (60% share) expected to be installed this year. Chinese cleantech exports continue to propel the transition in the rest of the world. — Europe is seeking to balance climate action with competitiveness. Harder-to-decarbonize sectors are progressing slowly. While Europe’s renewable energy buildout remains relatively strong, it falls short of the EU’s 2030 renewable energy targets. — In the rest of the world, most countries are embracing competitive Chinese technologies, with year-on-year growth in installations at around 25%. Fossil energy use is also rising, but not as quickly. The primary energy fossil fuel share only shrinks from 79% to 75% over the next 10 years. — This year, DNV forecasts the energy transition to 2060 for the first time. We project the global transition will continue through the 2050s, with acceleration at that time in nuclear and negative emission technologies. 1 2 3 4 5 0 10 20 30 40 2024 2030 2040 2050 2060 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2024 2030 2040 2050 2060 2024 forecast ...while the rest of the world follows a similar trend Emission decline in North America is slowed down by 5 years... HIGHLIGHT 1 | Evolution of energy-related CO2 emissions in North America and in the rest of the world (GtCO2/yr) Block Island Wind Farm – the first US offshore wind farm — off Rhode Island. (Photo by Dennis Schroeder / NREL) 3 DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2025 FINANCE FOSSIL FUELS HARD SECTORS POLICY EMISSIONS REGIONS ETO MODEL FORECAST ELECTRIFICATION DEVELOPMENTS 2. Energy security actions globally produce a net result of lower emissions over time — Energy security priorities result in a decrease in emissions among energy-importing countries, while energy-exporting countries tend to see an increase in emissions. This trend endures even with the increased emphasis on domestic coal production in China and India. 3. EV and solar set new milestones as electricity production grows and greens with a progressively higher non-fossil share — This year, the world reached the milestone of more than 50 million EVs on the road. Most of them (60%) are in China, with Europe at 21%, and North America at 13%. By 2030, we expect there to be 200 million EVs on the road. The point of inflection — EVs at 50% of global new passenger vehicle sales — will be reached in 2032. — When we remove the energy security dimension in our global energy model, leaving only the afforda- bility vs sustainability dilemma, sustainability suffers more. The effects are moderate, but we find energy secu